Has always remained stable since the beginning of summer this year, wheat futures have soared straight: Zhengzhou Ales futures since June 2 of this round of market bottom of the counting, to July 8 rose to 3.89%, on the price surged to 2,349 yuan / ton high . The industry believes that the long term, policy factors determine the price of wheat is the ultimate power. Expected to stay in the country following the acquisition of prop up the market, wheat prices weakened, but overall remain high and volatile, may be limited in some areas down range.
Wheat abnormal rise in weather, market "purchasing and storage" needs and farmers reluctant sellers, the joint efforts of psychology, since the beginning of summer 2010, is the price of wheat on the uncharacteristically up again and again.
This year the main flood season in south frequent rainstorms, while the northern temperate region the main flood season, the market prices for agricultural products have more concerns. Wheat analyst Ma Wenfeng Eastern Iger said the domestic wheat this year may be a slight cut, while the late wheat drying acquisitions also cause a certain degree of obstruction. Judging from the actual harvest, Hubei, Anhui, Jiangsu, Henan, south of yield is not as previously expected, the National yields 1.41%, the actual production of winter wheat decreased for two consecutive years. The total winter wheat production nationwide is estimated 105,704,000 tons, down 0.32% over the previous output; consider the decline in spring wheat acreage is expected to produce 112,284 tonnes of wheat throughout the year, down 0.8% over the previous year.
In addition, the acquisition this year, the main increase is the result of multiple capital market highly competitive market from the price point of view, the acquisition likely to cause multiple main market price of wheat rise, while price volatility is outstanding performance characteristics.
But the industry has also pointed out that the latter should not be on the high wheat prices is expected to hold. National Grain and Oil Information Center, wheat analyst Haoran think, because in 2009 and 2008, wheat stocks adequate minimum purchase price, running weekly transaction volume bid far higher than volume, Chen wheat price is an important new reference price of wheat, on the ordinary white wheat and mixed wheat, the new wheat after wheat market price exceeds Chen will significantly increase the risk. In fact, many traders buy very cautious, unwilling to continue to raise prices. The July 8 Ales four main contracts are with income reported after the close Yin Xian Yang, high signs of beginning to bear down.
Or continue high vibration from the current situation, although wheat prices rose rapidly, but did not get with the volume, on the contrary, prices rose rapidly increased trade and processing enterprises to keep watching psychological. The industry believes that the long term policy factors determine the price of wheat is the ultimate power. Expected to stay in the country following the acquisition of prop up the market, wheat prices weakened, the overall remain high, some areas may be slightly decreased, but the range is limited.
On the one hand, the pattern of supply and demand fundamentals did not reverse the loose. From the Department of Agriculture published data, this year's harvest of wheat is still wheat yield more than 2170 billion jin, a slight increase over the previous year. Even as a conservative estimate of the Orient Iger, the domestic wheat has generally maintained the level of harvest year after year, not enough to shake the market's overall supply and demand pattern.
On the other hand, the policy has always been an important factor in stabilizing food prices. Food prices and agricultural prices are important factors affecting CPI, once affected by rising food prices, then inflation will increase with this end, the National Development and Reform Commission issued a "minimum grain purchasing prices to carry out checks on notice," the decision starting from July wheat, rice plan for the implementation of the minimum purchase price of the minimum purchasing price of grain inspection areas. This will stabilize the purchase price of a prescription.
"Wheat prices have little hard to increase short-term, but not significant decline", Ma Wenfeng believe that with the general stabilization of new wheat Jiagezhujian, each subject's attitude began to change Shougou, traders no longer buy, processing enterprises gradually relaxed state of mind, most smooth procurement. Parties in the market is expected to re-convergence, the market rose on the basis of the existing shocks may return interval.
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